Historical Breakouts

This table presents a historical log and a trading simulation applied to stocks that triggered technical breakouts based on predefined chart patterns. The simulation is designed to model a disciplined trading strategy that incorporates entry price validation, stop-loss management, and a trailing stop mechanism to capture profits while limiting downside risk. There are upto 3 months of data history.


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What the Table Shows

Each row in the table represents a stock that triggered a breakout on a specific date, along with simulated trading outcomes based on that breakout. The columns include:

  • Breakout Date: The date on which the breakout pattern was detected.
  • Breakout Price: The price level used to validate the breakout.
  • 5% / 10% Days: How many trading days it took to reach a 5% or 10% gain from the entry price, if at all.
  • Stop-Loss Days: How soon the price dropped below a -7% stop-loss level.
  • Simulated Gain: The final percentage gain (or loss) realized by the simulation.
  • Simulation Days: How long the position was held.
  • Sell Price & Date: The price and date on which the simulated strategy exited the trade.

Simulation Logic

The simulation models a realistic, rule-based trading strategy:

1. Entry Price Handling

  • If the breakout price was reachable on the breakout date (i.e., within the intraday high-low range), it's used as the entry price.
  • If the stock gapped up and opened above the breakout price, the opening price is assumed as the realistic entry point.

2. Initial Stop-Loss

  • A hard stop-loss is placed at 7% below the entry price.
  • If the stock drops to or below this level, the position is immediately closed at that price.

3. Profit Capture Logic

  • Once the stock gains at least 5%, the stop-loss is moved up to +1% (break-even).
  • For every additional 5% increase, the stop-loss ratchets upward by 5% — this is a trailing stop strategy.
  • If the price later falls to or below the current trailing stop level, the position is closed and the simulated gain is recorded.

4. Fallback Exit

  • If the stock never hits a stop-loss or profit threshold, the simulation exits on the last available trading day at the closing price.